South Snohomish County • April 18, 2023

South Snohomish County Q1 2023 Report

by Casey Bui

We are seeing signs of price stabilization and some growth after the market correction of 2022! Illustrated on the front is the up-down-up trajectory that home prices have experienced over the last year. While we are in the midst of measuring the negative difference from the peak prices of the first half of 2022 to now, we are still up 12 months over 12 months, and most recently prices are up from last month.

The correction in prices was a result of a 3-point increase in interest rates over the second half of 2022. Data shows the market has recalibrated in 2023 which has increased buyer demand as consumers have become more comfortable with the “new normal”. This has caused prices to stabilize and start to grow month-over-month since January. Days on market are shrinking and sale prices are averaging closer to the list prices, and in some cases are escalating over the list price. It has been an eventful past year highlighting the importance of real-time, accurate information to help empower strong decisions. Moves are motivated by life changes, lifestyle goals, and strategic financial planning. If you or someone you know is curious about how the market relates to these needs, please reach out.

Newsletter • April 3, 2023

Housing Absorption Trends, Interest Rates Hovering, and Inventory Constricting

by Casey Bui

Three key elements to pay attention to when assessing prices and the real estate market.

As we round out the first quarter of 2023, three real-time trends to pay close attention to in order to truly understand what is happening in the real estate market are absorption data, interest rates, and inventory levels. Right now, we are in the midst of the market heating up due to seasonality, pent-up buyer demand, and rates finding their new normal. The media will often lag in reporting the latest information (pending sale data) and will latch onto closed sale data, which is outdated. I am here to keep you on the frontline of market activity so you are connected to the most current data to keep you well informed.

Let’s start with absorption data. Month-to-date (3/1/23-3/27/23), days on market are shrinking and sale price to original list price ratios are climbing. This means that houses are selling faster and negotiations are becoming more competitive for buyers. I was able to determine that these trends are fluid from Snohomish County to King County by analyzing four zip codes: 98296 (City of Snohomish), 98020 (Edmonds), 98155 (East Shoreline), 98117 (Ballard).

Available inventory is constricting due to an increase in absorption and new listings lagging. As we head into spring, we will see a seasonal uptick in new listings which will be welcomed by a healthy buyer audience. Month-to-date, inventory levels based on pending sales show a seller’s market (0-2 months). You calculate months of inventory by taking the number of available homes and dividing it by the number of pending sales. If no new homes came to market the trend suggests we would sell out of homes in this amount of time. Month-to-date the actual number of homes available in each zip code is quite limited and a welcome sign for more new listings as we head into Spring. Again, I pulled the data for the four zip codes to represent a sampling of both Snohomish and King Counties.

Both of the trends above have been determined by buyers becoming more comfortable with the new normal of interest rates. The correction in the market that we experienced in 2022 was a result of a 3-point increase in interest rates. After prices adjusted to levels that would work with the higher rates, buyers started to return to the market. 2-3% and maybe even 4% interest rates will be folklore we tell our grandchildren about. People that want to make a move have come to terms with adapting to the higher rates and making these important life transitions. Today’s rates are much more in line with the average over the last 30 years.

At the start of 2023, the 30-year fixed mortgage was at 6.48%, then dropped to 5.99% in early February, peaked at 7.1% in early March, and is now back down to 6.54% at press time. Rates have been volatile as the Fed tries to manage inflation. You can access a video below from Matthew Gardner explaining the effect of the Fed and the recent bank failures on interest rates and the real estate market overall.

One item to note is that mortgage rates are long-term interest rates, and when you hear about the Fed raising rates they are referring to short-term rates such as car loans, credit cards, and home equity loans. The media does not make that distinction, often confusing the public. In fact, in some cases when the short-term rate has been increased, we have seen mortgage rates drop. Here is a great website to follow to get a real-time read on rates.

Interest rates finding their way, the psychological acceptance of the new normal, and people needing to make moves to adapt to their life changes have led to prices starting to stabilize and even grow in some markets. I pulled the month-to-date median price data for the four zip codes and it appears prices are leveling and growth is happening or will be in the near future. Bear in mind, that the bottom often comes in the form of a bounce before there is a consistent straight shot up. All signs are pointing to recovery from the correction in these areas noted. This growth will be added to the immense long-term price gains we have seen. Currently, 93% of all homeowners in the U.S. have positive home equity and 48% of homeowners have more than 50% equity.

During this time of change, it is important that each neighborhood and price point is researched individually. From the four zip code breakdowns above, it is clear that the trends vary. When I am asked the question, “How’s the Market?”, I am always curious to know what you have heard and what you want to learn about. Sweeping statements are dangerous and I am committed to diving into the data to educate my clients on how the trends affect their investments and their lifestyle.

With the market correction of 2022 in the rearview mirror and the recovering market of 2023 upon us it is important to understand that opportunity abounds. That opportunity is rooted in research. Solid research and discerning the data gathered help empower strong decisions and build trust. This is my process and my passion and it is all about helping people! If you are curious about how the latest trends match up with your investment and lifestyle goals, please reach out and we can dive in.

video module: https://youtu.be/oaEyf-FeBfg

You’re invited to our annual Paper Shredding Event & Food Drive. We partner with Confidential Data Disposal to provide a safe, eco-friendly way to reduce your paper trail and help prevent identity theft.

Saturday, April 15th, 10AM to 2PM*
4211 Alderwood Mall Blvd, Lynnwood
Bring your sensitive documents to be professionally destroyed on-site. Limit 10 file boxes per visitor.

This is a paper-only event. No x-rays, electronics, recyclables, or any other materials.

We will also be collecting non-perishable food and cash donations to benefit Volunteers of America Western Washington food banks. Donations are not required, but are appreciated. Hope to see you there!

*Or until the trucks are full

Eastside • November 10, 2022

Eastside Q3 Market Report

by Casey Bui

The real estate market is adjusting to new environmental factors as we round out 2022. Interest rates have been on an upward trend since the spring and have increased by 2 points since the first of the year. This has put downward pressure on the peak prices we saw in the spring as we return to more normalized, historical rates. We must keep in perspective the strong year-over-year price gains as these environmental factors settle out. Additionally, we are sitting on top of 10 years of price growth resulting in over 50% of homeowners in WA state with at least 50% home equity.

This move towards balance in the market has increased market times and highlighted the importance of scrutinized pricing and detailed planning. It has also provided more opportunities for buyers in regards to selection, price, and contract terms. This market requires keen analytical skills, strategic negotiations, creativity, and a higher level of customer care.

I welcome the balance and normalization and look forward to helping my clients make moves to match their needs in life! Please reach out if you are curious about how the market relates to your goals or know someone that needs my help.

Seattle Metro • November 7, 2022

Seattle Metro Q3 Market Report

by Casey Bui

Community Events • September 26, 2022

Pumpkin Patches & Fall Activities

by Casey Bui

Pumpkin Patches & Fall Activities

Fall has arrived in the PNW and it’s time for cool mornings, warm beverages, beautiful colors, hay rides and pumpkin picking. Head out to a local farm for fresh produce and family-friendly activities.

This is by no means an exhaustive list… there so many farms in our area, especially Snohomish County. Leave a comment with your favorite if it’s not on the list!

*Please always check websites for confirmation of activities, hours, possible closures, and any other details.

SOUTH SNOHOMISH COUNTY

Biringer’s Black Crow Pumpkins & Corn Maze – Arlington

Pumpkin patch and corn maze. Local cider, honey and produce. Fall fun! Pet-friendly.

Bob’s Corn & Pumpkin Farm – Snohomish

Tractor rides, pumpkin patch, corn maze, night maze, bonfire rentals, concessions. Fresh produce at the Country Store and lunch and dinner are available on the weekend at the Country Kitchen.

Carleton Farm – Lake Stevens

No frills pumpkin patch, animals, market, concessions, and free parking are all open to the public at no charge.

Craven Farm – Snohomish

Corn maze, hayride, pumpkin patch, fire pit rentals, concessions, autumn décor.

Legacy Farm – Monroe

Pumpkin patch, kids corn maze, covered hay ride, barrel train, kid zone playground, animals, carnival games, papa’s fire truck, family photo area, festive food & drink.

The Farm at Swans Trail – Snohomish

Pumpkin Patches, fresh-pressed cider, corn maze, concessions. Animals, kids play area, live duck races, pigs show, hay rides, cow train, indoor slides, tractor pull, zip lines and more.

Fairbank Animal Farm & Pumpkin Patch – Edmonds

Pumpkin patch, farm animals, toy duck races, hay tunnel and more.

Stocker Farms – Snohomish

Pumpkin patch, corn maze, family photo areas, concessions, kids play areas, hay ride, bubble barn, duck races, tractor slide, gaga ball, steer & pig roping, and more. New, Saturday nights fireworks extravaganza.

Thomas Family Farm – Snohomish

Pumpkin patch, corn maze, kids fun park, 5-hole putt putt, heated & covered beer garden, escape rooms, haunted house, monster truck rides and more. Night activities: zombie paintball, haunted trail, haunted house.

KING COUNTY

Carpinito Brothers – Kent

Pumpkin patch, corn maze, kids activities, farm animals, hay maze, goat walk. No pets allowed.

Fall City Farms – Fall City

Pumpkin patch, farm animals, concessions. No pets allowed.

Jubilee Farm – Carnation

Pumpkin patch, hay rides, concessions, farm market, and more. Free admission. No pets allowed.

Oxbow Farm – Carnation

Oxtober celebration 10/15, 16, 22, 23: pumpkins, living playground, Oxboat ride on pumpkin river, farm-fresh produce. Registration on website.

Remlinger Farms – Carnation

Pumpkin patch, apple cannon, pony rides, mechanical rides, farm animals, giant swing, play area, pioneer village, concessions and more.

Serres Farm – Redmond

Pumpkin patch, animal train, corn maze.

Thomasson Family Farm – Enumclaw

Pumpkin patch, corn maze, lazer tag, farm animals, play areas, apple slingshot, tetherball, giant Jenga, giant Connect 4, photo ops and more.

Yakima Fruit Market – Bothell

Farm stand with lots of local pumpkins, apples, and farm-fresh produce. Corn stalks, hay bales and fall décor.

Newsletter • September 26, 2022

Navigating a Balanced Market

by Casey Bui

As we experience the fall equinox, when the length of a day is equal to the night, we are also experiencing a similar balance in the real estate market. We define a balanced market to have 2-4 months of available inventory. This means that if no new homes came to market, we would be sold out of homes in that amount of time. Month-to-date in September, we have 2.1 months of inventory in King County and 1.7 months in Snohomish County, after having 1.6 months in King and 1.5 months in Snohomish in August. This has been a stark contrast to the spring months when we bottomed out at 0.3 months in both counties in March.

How we navigate the changing environment is key! The reasons why people buy and sell real estate is often rooted in life changes. Yes, real estate is an investment and often leads to financial gain, but moves are more likely motivated by life circumstances that create a desired change in housing. So how do you find success in a market approaching or already in balance, versus an extreme seller’s market?

First, market preparation should not be taken lightly. How a home is presented to the market is instrumental in setting it apart from the increase in the competition (more inventory), so it stands out and sells quicker. As a part of my process (in all markets), I walk through the property with my sellers and we devise a plan to improve, clean, and sometimes update the property so it shows as favorably as possible in order to attract the largest pool of buyers possible. With more selection, this preparation is paramount to getting the highest return and shortest market time.

I will often refer to my preferred list of contractors to help take on our prep list and I can also consult on what items are of the highest priority to improve, so we do not cut into profit. Windermere even has a no-upfront, low-cost loan program, The Windermere Ready Program that allows for quick and inexpensive access to funds in order to get property preparation done seamlessly.

The second key element is pricing. In King County, prices are up 10% complete year-over-year and up 18% in Snohomish County. However, prices are down 10% from the spring 2022 peak in King County and 12% in Snohomish. Price appreciation has started to decelerate (slow down) year-over-year, but we still have above-average price gains when we compare 2021 to 2022. Not to mention, we are sitting on top of a decade of positive price appreciation. The long-term equity growth a seller has is a healthy perspective to set their expectations on rather than holding on to the extreme environment of the spring market that is not returning.

With that said, sellers have amazing gains to enjoy, and not overshooting their price will lead to the most profitable and drama-free outcome. In King County in August, 37% of homes sold at or above the list price, and 34% in Snohomish County; that is 1 in 3 homes! These homes were brought to market with accurate pricing that attracted a buyer pool that understood the value and was motivated to offer. Market time was also shorter. Homes in King and Snohomish Counties that sold in 15 days or less averaged a list-to-sale price ratio of 100% and homes that sold in 15-30 days took close to a 5% hit on list price. When the days on market get longer the hit on list price gets even higher. It is important to get the pricing right in the beginning. Thorough research, properly focused perspective, and clear communication all play into this success.

Lastly, negotiations have changed. In the extreme seller’s market, it was all about buyers waiving all their contingencies and a willingness to pay high amounts over the list price to win a home because the selection was low and money was cheap. Now that interest rates have increased, prices have been tempered by the cost of a loan, putting downward pressure on the peak prices from the spring. This is a sign of the market coming into balance. All of these financial factors hinge on one another and are related. We must understand this when we establish a price and head into negotiations. We need to know when to lean into the data and draw a line in the sand on our value, and when to be open and acquiesce to a solution. Having the emotional intelligence to see the big picture and work towards win-win outcomes serves everyone well. This muscle is being rebuilt across the industry; make sure you are aligning with a professional who is well-researched, calm and confident.

What has been really positive about this shift is the ability for a buyer to be a bit more nimble with their move, especially if they have a home to sell. Before, there was a stop-gap in the market because if a seller who was a buyer had to sell their home in order to buy, they were fearful that they would not find a place to live and would have to move twice. Now we are seeing home sale contingencies happen, and buyers whose homes are under contract are making offers subject to those successful closings. It has also allowed for less-rushed due diligence, which is much more comfortable and reduces risk.

One last element I will add is that market conditions vary from neighborhood to neighborhood and price point to price point. Another element we must be aware of as we move away from the extreme is that we cannot make sweeping statements about the market. Some markets are in balance, some are still a seller’s market, and some are leaning towards the favor of buyers. The detail and care that is required to properly educate our clients are more important than they have been in some time and one that I take great pride in.

The answer is often, “it depends” which is followed by a stockpile of research, discernment, and communication in order to formulate a strategic plan and create a successful outcome. It is always my goal to keep my clients well-informed and empower strong decisions. Please reach out if you are curious about the success you can find in our new market. As stated above, life changes often motivate moves, and helping people navigate these huge, life-changing moments is my passion.

Did you know Windermere is the official real estate company of the Seahawks?!

The best part of this partnership is our #TackleHomelessness campaign. For every defensive tackle made by the Hawks at their home games throughout the season, The Windermere Foundation donates $100 to Mary’s Place. Our current total is over $200k donated over the last 6 seasons of partnering with the Seahawks.

Since 1999, Mary’s Place has helped thousands of women and families move out of homelessness into more stable situations. Across five emergency family shelters in King County, they keep families together, inside, and safe when they have no place else to go, providing resources, housing and employment services, community, and hope.

Seattle Metro • May 24, 2022

Seattle Metro Q1 Market Report 2022

by Casey Bui

The 2022 real estate market started with a bang! We started the year with the lowest amount of available inventory we’ve ever seen coupled with interest rates a point lower than they are now, along with a plentiful buyer pool due to a strong job market and work-from-home influenced moves. The combination of supply and demand and low debt service created an intense seller-centric environment which resulted in huge home price increases from January to March. This is on top of ten years of solid price growth; over 50% of homeowners in WA state have at least 50% home equity.

As we head into the spring and summer months, we anticipate seasonal increases in inventory, which will provide much-needed selection for buyers. Interest rates have increased as a tool to combat inflation, which was predicted by experts across the nation and announced by the Fed. Rates still remain historically low and have only departed from the “tell-your-grandkids” levels between 3.5% to 4.5%. Price growth should start to temper after a feverish Q1 and buyers will enjoy more selection. If you are curious about how your real estate goals match up with the market, please reach out. It is my goal to help keep my clients informed and empower strong decisions.

North King County • May 23, 2022

North King County Q1 Market Report 2022

by Casey Bui

Eastside • May 10, 2022

Eastside Q1 Market Report 2022

by Casey Bui

South King County • October 29, 2021

South King County Q3 Market Report

by Casey Bui

As we start the fourth quarter of 2021, homeowners are sitting on top of a heap of appreciation. Annual median price growth has been unprecedented. Pandemic-driven moves, historically low interest rates, and limited inventory have all played into this phenomenon.

The third quarter saw price growth start to level out as many sellers have stair-stepped their pricing up based on growth in the first half of the year. That has reduced the average list-to-sale price ratios compared to the spring market; however, the average is still over list price. Days on market have also inched up, but continue to be brisk. Inventory has increased some as we find ourselves settling into fall, but demand still abounds with many buyers eager to secure a low interest rate.

You can always count on me to keep you well informed. I am a committed student of the market who continually researches the trends and understands the value of sharing this knowledge to empower strong decisions. Please reach out anytime, it is my pleasure to get your questions answered or help you embark on your next move.